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Forum » Everything about Forex » Idle talk » Daily forecasts on currency pairs
Daily forecasts on currency pairs
semyon-e1Date: Tuesday, 25 May 10, 15:27 | Message # 1
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Reviews of currency pairs

"Somewhere in the labyrinth of opening and closing prices, highs and lows runs phantom line - the real market"
 
semyon-e1Date: Tuesday, 25 May 10, 15:29 | Message # 2
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May 25. Renewed increased reluctance of investors to risk again damaged the pair dollar / Japanese yen, said a Barclays Capital. Consolidation below 91,00 drew attention to the bank at least a wider range of 88.10 and the prospects for the fall to 85.00. In the case of growth, according to Barclays Capital, a return higher than 91.00 will signal stabilization. At the time of this writing couple was trading at 89.44.

"Somewhere in the labyrinth of opening and closing prices, highs and lows runs phantom line - the real market"
 
semyon-e1Date: Wednesday, 02 Jun 10, 11:48 | Message # 3
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TOKYO, June 2. The Japanese yen fell against the U.S. dollar and the euro during the Asian session on Wednesday. Short-term market participants sold the Japanese currency after the announcement of the Prime Minister of Japan, Yukio Hatoyama of the resignation, which reduced the attractiveness of the yen as an asset-seekers.

As at 06.50 GMT couple dollar / yen in the interbank market was trading at 91,48-49, euro / dollar - on 1,2211-13, the euro / yen - on 111,71-76, a pair of British pound / dollar - by 1,4708-14, a couple of dollar / Swiss franc - on 1,1571-76.

A pair dollar / yen rose to a two-week maximum of 91.78, after the reported resignation Hatoyama resigned. According to analysts, the pair dollar / yen may rise to 93.00 before the weekend, thanks in part may contribute to conversations about the political changes in Japan, which may mean less tolerance of the authorities to strengthen the yen.

Statement Hatoyama's resignation came only a few weeks before the scheduled July 11 elections to the upper house of parliament in Japan. Thus, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan is necessary to choose a new leader and cabinet. Uncertainty as to how these changes may affect the Japanese currency and economic policy in the country, led market participants to reduce their positions on the yen, dealers said.

The current Minister of Finance of Japan, Naoto Kan, which is supposed to be the most likely successor Hatoyama, made it clear that he welcomed a weaker yen dynamics. Similar dynamics will support key to Japan's export sector. According to the Secretary General of the Democratic Party of Japan Ichiro Ozawa, who also said that leaving his post, the election of new party leader on Friday.

"If Khan becomes prime minister, it can provide more substantial support for the pair dollar / yen," - said Satoshi Okagava, senior currency trader at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking. In this case the pair dollar / yen is likely to continue to bargain above the psychologically important mark of the key 90,00, notes Okagava.

This is due to the fact that the government under the leadership of Kana can make market participants more sensitive to the threat of verbal and, perhaps, the real currency intervention aimed at curbing the strengthening yen. Since taking office in January, Finance Minister Kang said that he wanted to "some easing" the Japanese currency. He also took the unusual step, indicating a certain level. For example, Kahn said that many Japanese companies are hoping that the pair dollar / yen will be charged in the area 95.

Public support for the Democratic Party of Japan is weakening. According to analysts, this situation indicates that even in the case of increasing the rating of the Party in connection with the change of leader she is likely to lose the current small advantage after the elections to the upper house of Japan. Exit at the weekend of the Social Democratic Party of Japan from the ruling bloc means that the government can not even count on the informal support from this former member of the coalition.

"Even after the new cabinet will be formed, the uncertainty about the election results will have a negative impact on the yen," - said Masafumi Yamamato, chief currency strategist at Barclays Capital in Japan.

The uncertainty is for the yen is even more significant threat in the medium term, as Kahn says Yamamoto. "Kahn, of course, prefer a lower yen," but in the absence of a sharp fall in stock price "Keidanren / Japan Business Federation / lobbyists and other business groups have not actively sought for the Government to take measures to strengthen against the yen," said Yamamoto.

However, dealers noted that political instability in Japan, most likely, will not lead to a sharp drop in the yen. The negative impact on the Japanese currency would be limited as market participants previously had begun to take account of quotations political uncertainty in the country and the ability to care Hatoyama resigned, said Yuzo Sakai, manager of currency units in the Forex & Ueda Harlow.

Euro lost won earlier position, as investors sold the single European currency in growth accompanied by persistent fears about the spread of debt problems in the eurozone. In the euro also affected by political uncertainty in most euro area, after President key to the region of Germany Horst Koehler on Monday resigned from his post.


"Somewhere in the labyrinth of opening and closing prices, highs and lows runs phantom line - the real market"
 
semyon-e1Date: Wednesday, 02 Jun 10, 11:56 | Message # 4
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June 2. A pair of British pound / US dollar has broken a maximum of 1.4612 and is now growing to the area of resistance 1,4724-98, said Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. According to its forecast, the growth of a pair of stops within these limits, but if this does not happen, then the pair focus on areas 1,4856-77, which should limit its growth. Minor support is at 1.4365 and further - to 1.4262. At the time of this writing pair was trading at 1.4747

"Somewhere in the labyrinth of opening and closing prices, highs and lows runs phantom line - the real market"
 
semyon-e1Date: Wednesday, 02 Jun 10, 12:17 | Message # 5
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June 2. "We propose to use the euro and Japanese yen as currency debt and invest in Asian assets and high-yield and commodity currencies", - said in BNP Paribas. Nevertheless, the bank noted that the Australian dollar is focused on the liquidity situation and the developments in China. Given that this week's key data from China are not expected, the dynamics of trades on the Australian dollar in the short term will be determined by liquidity.

"Somewhere in the labyrinth of opening and closing prices, highs and lows runs phantom line - the real market"
 
semyon-e1Date: Wednesday, 02 Jun 10, 12:23 | Message # 6
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Intraday EUR / USD during the day: Growth pairs with a minimum reached on Tuesday in 2010 1.2110 1.2355 mark is limited, but a breakthrough level of 1.2200 during trading on Wednesday indicated that she was going back to check on the strength of at least 1.2110. It dominates the downtrend and there is a potential break below 1.2110, which will open the way to 1.2050 and the psychologically important 1.2000 mark. This mark is on the way to the target levels of 1.1935 / 46. Height above 1.2263 is needed in order to improve the prospects for couples and re-open the road to a maximum of 1.2355.

Intraday EUR / USD Weekly chart: downtrend.

A pair of U.S. dollar / Japanese yen during the day: A pair of shows steady growth with the minimum of 90.54 Tuesday to new short-term high above 91.63. While the support at 91.21 limit reduction, there is the possibility of increasing pressure on the resistance at the level of 91.78. Trade above that level would open the way to 92.17, target level of tension Fibonacci 1,618, but requires sustained break of this level that the pair was able to continue considered correctional growth with 88.95. Breakthrough 91.21 mark would cause concern among market participants that put on the growth, but only trade below 90.89 would aim for at least a couple of 90.54.

Intraday USD / JPY Weekly chart: Bearish trend

A pair of British pound / U.S. dollar during the day: A pair continues to demonstrate a sure recovery from 1.4229, after a course of trading on Tuesday made a break above 1.4610. Currently, steam is aimed at 1.4750, the level of tension Fibonacci 1,618. At the same time, growth of the pair should be limited to the minimum resistance of the former range of 1.4785 and the expected resistance at around 1.4805. By reducing the couple will receive support, while trading above 1.4535, and only trade in the area below 1.4434 will cause concern of market participants that put on the growth of couples.

A pair of British pound / US dollar on the weekly chart trend: Bearish.

A pair of U.S. dollar / Swiss franc during the day: A pair of strongly decreased with progress on Tuesday, 13-month high of 1.1730, and now it shows the recovery from 1.1470, while continuing to bargain in the range. Break above 1.1590 will lead to further correctional capacity - in the direction of the target level of equality waves 1.1656. However, market participants, putting on a pair of decline, will seek to limit its growth in the area to protect it from breaking a mark 1.1730. The breakthrough level of 1.1540 again provide control over the situation in the short term, in the hands of market participants that put on a pair of reduction, and pave the way to a minimum 1.1470.

Intraday USD / CHF Weekly chart: uptrend.


"Somewhere in the labyrinth of opening and closing prices, highs and lows runs phantom line - the real market"
 
semyon-e1Date: Wednesday, 02 Jun 10, 12:24 | Message # 7
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Intraday EUR / GBP during the day: In the course of trading on Wednesday couple continues to reach new lows in 2010, after being made a break below 0.8325. Upon completion of the formation of a three-week figures "bearish pennant on the graph pair is likely to continue to decline towards the target level of equality of 0.8175 waves, which also corresponds to the correction of 50% growth wave of 0.6541 to 0.9804 from January 2007 December 2008. This area is also a maximum range of 0.8195 earlier. Only trade above 0.8396 will give a pair of breathing space.

Intraday EUR / GBP Weekly chart trend: Bearish.

Intraday EUR / JPY during the day: A pair of confidence increases with the minimum of 109.77 Tuesday, but it continues to adhere to the figure "pennant" in the consolidation between 112.86 and 110.99. There are signs of increasing downward pressure on support at 111.18. Break below this mark will open the way to 110.99 and 110.63. However, a break below 110.63, in order to re-focus the couple on a minimum of 109.77. Break above 112.50 will provide a pair of support, paving the way to 112.86, and will create an opportunity for growth to a maximum of 113.66 on May 28.

Intraday EUR / JPY Weekly chart trend: Bearish.

Intraday EUR / CHF during the day: A pair continues to adhere to the dominant downtrend with the reaction of the maximum 21 May 1.4589. This continued decline in the course of trading on Wednesday headed the pair at least 27 May 1.4110. There is an opportunity for a breakthrough towards 1.4088. However, this move should trigger a more significant weakening of the pair, in which she again will go to a record low 1.3997, fixed in the middle of May. Only above 1.4181 will improve the growth prospects for couples and provide an opportunity for regular checks on the strength of a mark 1.4226.

Intraday EUR / CHF Weekly chart trend: Bearish.

A pair of Australian dollar / US dollar during the day: A pair continues to decline from a peak on May 28 0.8550 after Wednesday tried to break the 0.8282 mark down. While the 0.8376 mark limits the growth of the pair, there is an opportunity for further decline - in the direction of a higher minimum of 26 May 0.8188, which also corresponds to the target level of equality of the waves and the level of correction for 76,4% of wave growth from 0.8068 to 0, 8550. Thus, this area should limit the potential to reduce vapors. Trading above the 0.8376 will improve the prospects for couples and pave the way to a lower maximum 0.8435.

A pair of Australian dollar / US dollar on the weekly chart trend: Bearish.


"Somewhere in the labyrinth of opening and closing prices, highs and lows runs phantom line - the real market"
 
semyon-e1Date: Wednesday, 02 Jun 10, 12:32 | Message # 8
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June 2. The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama has damaged the Japanese yen. At the same time, the U.S. dollar fell against all other major currencies against the background of some improvement in market sentiment in connection with the release of favorable data on the GDP of Australia. Euro is traded in different directions on the back of weak European stock indexes after declining stock price in Asia and the U.S.. A pair dollar / yen trading at a higher - at 91.61, and the euro / dollar is almost unchanged - at 1.2237. A pair of British pound / dollar trading at a higher - by 1.4737, since the confirmation of the company's refusal to deal with the Pru by AIG has pushed up the British currency.

"Somewhere in the labyrinth of opening and closing prices, highs and lows runs phantom line - the real market"
 
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